Crosshair: Andrea Bargnani
Posted by Arsenalist on May 10, 2008
It’s a slow day here in Dubai so I’ll continue with the Crosshair series by getting to Andrea Bargnani.
He was the key to our season and the linchpin that would determine continued success or regression, as his season would go so would the Raptors’. At the outset of the year we were relying on key production from two players: Bosh and Bargnani. Bosh delivered, Bargnani didn’t. The entire season went by with someone like Ford, Calderon or Moon trying to up their production to compensate for Bargnani’s regression. After every decent game by Bargnani (few and far between), we looked at it as ‘the sign’ of him coming out of his funk but it always turned out to be a mirage in the desert that was his season.
Bargnani declined in almost every major statistical category: minutes, points, rebounds, field goal percentage, three-point shooting percentage, steals and blocks. The two statistics that defined his seasons were his impotent rebounding (3.7/gm) and his horrid 38.6% field goal percentage. After rebounding at a 3.9 clip last season, one would’ve naturally expected him to improve that figure given his 7-foot frame and the years worth of experience he had gained. After shooting 42.7% in his rookie year, one would’ve expected that number to either improve or stay on par, but the significant 5% drop in that critical area proved to be the reason for his worthlessness. The one thing he was marketed to do well was shoot the three and shockingly he ended the season shooting 34.5% from downtown. If there ever was a case where the numbers reflected a player’s season, this was it.
The most disappointing aspect of Bargnani’s game is how he refuses to use the advantage given to him by God. He doesn’t take smaller players into the post and bails them out by shooting a jumper or that low-percentage fake-the-drive-pull-up-for-the-j move which is simply too fast and rushed to be as effective as it can be. Against slower players who have trouble moving laterally, Bargnani settles for the jumper instead of driving to the rim and using his quickness advantage. Once again, he bails the defense out by not taking advantage of his supposed strength and not exploiting their definite weakness. His basketball IQ when the ball is in his hands appears to be as low as Darius Miles and every decision he makes is unnatural and forced. It’s not a surprise that close to 80% of shots are jumpers, this might even be acceptable as long as you’re hitting them but when you’re shooting them at a low clip, why not work inside-out?
Explaining his regression is simple and can be summed up in one sentence: The scouts figured him out and he didn’t improve his game to counter them. This happens in every sport, a player has a good rookie season but struggles in his second year as coaches and scouts adapt to what they were doing. The ’sophomore slump’ is common but avoidable if you work at your game over the off-season. Andrea was busy playing for Italy to focus on these things and team management didn’t do enough to bring him along over the summer. Bargnani thought that he could just camp out at the three-point line again and defenders would play him for the drive while he launched jumpers in their face. Instead, defenders crowded him and forced him to put it on the deck which he couldn’t, the end result was him desperately wanting to shoot the jumper but having no idea how to get open. Rushed shots, forced shots and plain old bad shots earmarked Bargnani’s season because he was never able to keep the defense honest and never proved that he could make them pay for playing him tight.
The decline in his three-point shooting was the result of him rushing his already questionable shots because of the fear of the defense catching up to him and taking this momentary clean look away. It was like a child trying to finish off the chocolate bar in one bite before his parents could find out that he was eating candy. When his shots did go in and he did get hot, you just knew that there was no way he could sustain this ridiculous shooting percentage for more than a game. So it happened that every good Bargnani game was followed by 6 or 7 sub-par performances where he had trouble staying in the game because of missed defensive assignments, failure to box out his man and early foul trouble.
In Europe with Benetton Treviso his rebounding average was 2.0, 5.4 and 7.1, not exactly great rebounding numbers for a center, so its almost unfair to expect him to improve on those in the NBA. He is by every account a finesse player that has shown that he can’t be counted on to bang the defensive boards. His pathetic (and that is the appropriate word) 3.7 rebounds are shocking but not surprising, they may be disappointing but not unexpected. The desire to rebound can’t be taught, it has to come from within, a player has to want to get in to the paint, use elbows, box-out, be physical and snatch one away from the would-be offensive rebounder. In addition to lacking the technique to rebound, Bargnani also lacks the desire which makes him a complete non-factor on the boards. When your starting center is that soft on the boards, the production from everybody else on the frontline and the team has to be outstanding to make up for his deficiency. Although Bosh did his best to pick up the slack, we don’t have nearly enough physical down-and-dirty type players that can compensate for the rebounding hole left by Bargnani.
Consider this, one of the biggest problems the Raptors had this year was giving up too many second chance points through offensive rebounds. We averaged 40.07 rebounds a game which was third worst in the league only better than Sacramento and Miami - both lottery teams. If Bargnani had averaged 3 more rebounds a game taking his tally up to 6.7 (something in-line with Dirk Nowtizki), we’d average 43.07 rebounds a game which would’ve been good for 8th in the league!
A word needs to be said about Bargnani’s man-defense: It’s OK and passable. People often define it as being “great” which it is far from. He has a propensity to pick up two quick fouls early in the game in one-on-one situations relegating him to the bench which automatically means he’s not a great man-defender. Bargnani’s gotten better at keeping his arms straight in the air and using his size to bother offensive players but that does not come close to meaning he’s a lock-down defender. He’s gotten better at using his feet but it only works well when he’s mentally in to the game and playing with a fiery attitude, something which is often not there.
In my humble opinion playing him at center isn’t asking much from him. Yes, technically speaking its not the position he played in Europe but is it really that much different than a power forward? In the NBA the job description for a PF and a C is practically the same, there’s not nearly enough differences to say that Bargnani would’ve been more effective at the PF. I find that excuse for his play to be very lame and a sign of clutching on to straws to justify his performance. If he wants to play in the NBA, it’ll have to be at the 4/5 spots, doesn’t matter which one. The one position he can’t play is the small forward as Sam Mitchell’s ill-timed and failed experiment in the playoffs showed. Bargnani just doesn’t have the lateral quickness to keep up with the athletic NBA SFs who can expoit him at will.
So what do we do with Bargnani? Bryan Colangelo says to judge him after 5 years, Chuck Swirsky once replied to my email and told me to give him 3 years. I’ll go with Chuck. Bargnani has a busy off-season planned where he’ll work on the fundamentals of the game, if we see a meaningful improvement next year in his point production and defensive game, we should hang on to him. If the improvement is negligible and if he has regressed, there isn’t enough time for us to wait on him and we should ship him off as soon as his trade value reaches a point where we can get a warm-blooded body for him. He’s only 22 and might be a late-bloomer but will Colangelo actually wait till the end of the 2010-11 season before deciding Bargnani’s fate? I highly doubt it.
We have seen glimpses of what he might be able to do if he uses all his tools to full effect, plays with a high level of intensity and decides to be a factor on the glass. You might be able to see signs of greatness in him mainly because of his versatility but similar signs could also be seen in Kwame Brown. It might be too early to group Bargnani with Brown but unless he shows the Raptors that he’s more than an average three-point shooter, he’s going to end up being a bust like Brown. Bryan Colangelo jumping the gun and picking him #1 in the draft didn’t help Bargnani and it was unfair to him. There is a zero chance that he’ll be the best player coming out of the ‘06 draft and we should all accept that and move on. Hating on Bargnani for being the #1 pick never made sense to me, its not like he chose to go #1, it was Colangelo that incorrectly deemed him worthy of being a top selection. Colangelo went out of his way to draft Bargnani and against conventional wisdom so if Bargnani ends up being a disappointment, blame the GM well before you point to the player.
Personally, I’d settle for Bargnani being a Mehmet Okur type player.
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Back to regular blogging starting on Tuesday, will continue with the Crosshair series as time permits. Here’s another crazy fact about Dubai: 80% of the population consists of foreign workers. Yes, that’s right, foreign nationals outnumber local residents 4:1. The locals are filthy rich and are well protected by the government which has written every single law in their favor.
Later!
May 10, 2008 at 9:33 am
Don’t put it all on Bargnani!!
Firstly, no one expected Bargnani to be a defensive force in this league. His defence is passable, and did a fair job in the Orlando series. Last year he played the 4 off the bench. This year he was asked to start at the 5. Bargnani is no centre! Playing him at centre puts an unfair burden on him. Yes he is 7′, but his frame is no where near ready to bang with the BIG NBA centres. It takes alot of effort, out of his slight frame, to try to keep these guys out of the paint. Also the nuances of a centre are much differnt than the 4 spot. This drains him physically and mentally which hurts his confidence. Translate this to the offensive end and no mystery he is slumping offensively. Hopefully BC finds a true centre to bang inside, grab boards and be the enforcer. Bring Bargnani off the bench at the four and run some mid range sets for him and see what happens.
Cheers
May 10, 2008 at 10:04 am
Nice work Arse, you did it without going off on him which would be easy to do.
Funny that as I was reading it all I could think of was Okur having 17 boards the other day.
Bargnani’s game and talent is there but it is locked away deep inside and the only thing that will break it free is a giant key made of confidence and comfort.
He never looks like he knows what he is doing, never has his head up looking like he belongs.
There were moments last year when he showed some fire and a nasty side and was becoming known as an assassin from outside.
I still think he has it in him to be a solid starter in the league and this season will be the make or break one.
I think if he had a classic center to go with him and Bosh it would make a huge difference.
May 10, 2008 at 11:48 am
[...] - Arsenalist [...]
May 10, 2008 at 1:00 pm
Excellent analysis, Arsenalist … but you failed to project BCs selection of Bargs in a future Raptor team. Surely taking Bargs at #1 confirms BCs intention to convert the Raptors into a Euro-style international team … and reinforced with Gherardini and Ujiri.
If TJ is traded and Jose kept, that will again confirm this strategy. Bosh will most certainly be traded or he will ask to be traded because he feels he would not fit into an international team style. Should Messina be added to the coaching staff, that would finish it off.
Taking on Bargs was intended to eventually replace Bosh. Whether it will be successful or not is irrelevant, because the move was made and Bosh didn’t miss the point. Personally, I think Bosh has peaked and has no further upside, whereas Bargs is still an unknown quantity.
I speculated on a Bosh for Dirk trade, which could do a lot for both teams. Dirk is good for another 3 years and that is the time frame in BCs team rebuild. Of course there are other talents in Europe that can be brought in, but it would require the trading of Bosh to make room on the roster.
I believe BC and the MLSE are committed to building an international multiculti team that reflects Toronto demographics .. if only they could find a Canadian baller ..!!!!
May 10, 2008 at 9:39 pm
Andrea Bargnani + 3 years = Hedo Turkoglu ….???!!!!!
Of course if you are unable to wait as players develop, then you should root for another team … because the Toronto Raptors are a team under construction .. believe it ..!!!
May 11, 2008 at 1:14 am
Good job on the analysis Arsenalist, well written.
The thing about Bargnani is a sticky one, perhaps one of the biggest risk moves in the NBA is to draft a player who has never played or knows how to play one of the hardest positions in the league.
What I have to say about Bargnani is this, his first year seems to be a mirage of what he is, his strengths and abilities startled all of us, seeing a 7 footer jumping 3’s all over the place is quite a sight to see, when he is knocking em’ down. This year, with his shots being probably the worst amongst the whole team, we are much more focused in on his NUMEROUS flaws in his game.
The problem is, he plays nothing like a center. He probably is the furtherest thing from a center with that being said. We don’t see much of an effort to grab boards, to do putbacks, or stay within the box like traditional centers do, he rather shies away from rebounds as if he was allergic to the ball, and parks himself all the way up on the 3 point line every time they set up on offense. THIS IS NOT HOW A CENTER IS PLAYED, and it just irritates me. Essentially, he is starting from virtual scratch to play a different position. He doesn’t dunk, he likes to shoot, he doesn’t grab boards, he likes to run down after a shot is made.
What it all comes down to is, as much as I hate to say it - a mistake. The mistake is probably picking him, I firmly can say that this kid has a future - but not at the 5 spot, but at a 4 spot. I can see his game evolve to somewhat of a Hedo Turkolu mold (hopefully) at best, when you watch him play, they share numerous qualities - about the same height, can shoot the 3, long, agile, fast, good passer, good dribbler. But asking Bargnani to play a position he never played before is asking Hedo Turkolu to play C as well. It’s not their strength and it is a HUGE mistake in forcing him to be one. He’s a 4, and unfortunately, our best player who plays Bargnani’s position is much more of a player than he is.
With that being said, he simply does not compliment much to Bosh’s game. He needs more of a traditional big man on his side to excel in strength. It’s just plain awkward to see Bargs and Bosh on at the same time.
As for his future on the team? Very hard to say. This is such a conflicting situation that seems to be harder than understanding what Smitch is thinking at times. I’m frankly a supporter of Bargnani, not because I’m a fan of his game, but a fan of the team and I know that the team has invested HEAVILY on Bargnani to succeed, and is not ready or willing to give up on him so easily. So really, I’m just secretly hoping that he may succeed and come up as a respectable player and not a bust.
What I see in Bargnani is let him be him. This year we see a different Bargnani - His confidence is shot, his shooting is off. Why? Because of his adjustments. Don’t let him be what he is not. The kid is clearly confused, he doesn’t know how to play center, and no one is really there to teach him as opposed to Howard having Ewing and Bynum having Kareem. That being said, don’t force him to be a center, because his strengths are clearly not there and unfortunately don’t see that it will be there. Let him get into form, he is too scared to make mistakes and ends up making them because of thinking too heavily upon it. He needs to LOOSEN up and watch how Dirk plays, play loose without a care, build confidence and he will naturally be up there - as a scorer.
I have to say - 1 more year.
May 11, 2008 at 2:22 am
RapsFan Says: May 11, 2008 at 1:14 am
You learn fast there buddy … and I have little patience for those ‘fans’ who expected miracles from Bargs in his sophmore year while he was going under major changes to his style of play. Last season everybody was happy as pigs in poop at Bargs ability to pump 3-pointers and bring the Raps back into the game (and all the while Garbo was doing the dirty work and the little intangibles to shore up Bargs lack of other skills). I wonder how many ‘fans’ just looked at what Garbo was doing on the court while everybody else was getting famous ’scoring’ .. or as Mitchell said: “He does a little bit of everything well.” … and that’s why Mitchell either started Garbo or brought him off the bench when need be. Garbo played smart bball while Bargs played for the 3’s .. plain and simple.
I’ve said it before and you amplified on it … Bargs is going through a conversion and it’s being done in regular play in the NBA … good luck. Yes, Bargs should have spent his second summer building up his game to the expectations that Mitchell and the Raptors expected of him, and he didn’t do it .. apparently. Now he is to be sent to a ‘big men’s’ camp for the summer to learn something and not be an embarrassment to himself and the team. Maybe he should pump iron, shoot ‘roids and learn how to make the moves he attempted but more consistently and be able to finish at the basket. He either looked good or pathetic last season, and that’s not what fans want or deserve for their ticket money.
Bargs has got to make a huge commitment to bball, and he has about 6 months to do it in … presto, Bargnani …!!!
May 11, 2008 at 10:55 am
RapsFan… I see where you are coming from and why you feel that way.
Buuut… asking him to play the 5 can also be seen as an indication that he does have the potential to be successful at that spot, no? I don’t mean Kareem but better then what we saw.
Why would you put the man in the position to fail and make yourself look like an idiot in the process? I’m sure in practice he doesn’t look as awful as he did on the floor at times. This is also what I was saying about Moon when ppl were going off about him taking jumpers. Yes driving is his forte but he needed to develop other parts of his game - during the game itself. His jumper didn’t look that awful the last few games did it?
I’m not a AB defender, I am disappointed in his fall off this year as well, but at the same time, its not fair to compare it to last year since he didn’t play that spot last year. There are some that believe Bosh is a C in this L; why didn’t they move Bosh to the C spot and make AB the 4? (i have my thoughts, namely we would have sucked even more)
True .. rebounding is “new” to Bargs in this L and it’s not something you can really teach, but I believe they will show him a few things this summer that will make him at least better at it.
His game has zero limits and you hit it on the head - his confidence is shot. Mostly because he is so eager to please. Let’s wait for at the very least until next year before we start using words like mistake and bust. Those will not help his confidence in the least, even though as Arse said, he didn’t asked to picked no1!
Also, you don’t get the nickname Il Mago, because you are a bust!
May 11, 2008 at 4:36 pm
What if BC creates a ‘no-hero-no-all-star’ team .. an international team that depends on high IQ bball and low power bball .. will tribal honking fans still cheer for the Euro-Raptors ….??
I think everybody knows what is meant by the accusation “soft Euro players” .. as opposed to “tough US players”. It’s white players versus black players … playmakers versus athletes … thinkers versus doers … grinding versus flash … control versus sweat … You know … the racial thing …!!!!!
May 11, 2008 at 5:53 pm
Well Bosh is essentially the focal point of our team, Colangelo has been set on that from the beginning of his plans.
But honestly, the way our ‘Euros’ play they don’t seem to display any higher level of IQ in basketball than any other player from other continents. How many backdoor cuts, V cuts, trailers do you see us do per game? Our game can be simply cut down to Claderon’s pick and roll to set up offense and TJ’s sporadic offensive push which is inconsistent at best.
Then we have a boat load of shooters who seem to only understand one thing, shoot and back paddle.
Why don’t we have any GOOD Euro’s on our team? The Ginobli’s, the Parker’s, the Turkoglu’s, the Biedrien’s, the REAL Dirk’s?
May 12, 2008 at 1:42 pm
News on the Milwaukee Bucks on hoopshype today:
Some Bucks fans believe you should blow up this team, while others believe it just needs to be tweaked. What’s your view on this matter? John Hammond: “Maybe something in between. Maybe more than a tweak, but you sure as heck wouldn’t want to blow up a team with some of the assets that are here.”
Considering how this team foundered so miserably this season, are there any Bucks who are considered “untouchables?” John Hammond: “I don’t think it would be fair to say that, that there are untouchables on this team. You look at the obvious: we have two, very good young pieces in Bogut and Yi that you can build around. Bigs are so hard to find. The Bogut’s and the Yi’s … it would be awfully hard to move guys like that.
I think it’s fair to assume that this summer you’ll be making some trades. What areas would you like to shore up on this team? Hammond: “If you look at our team, in your backcourt, it is Mo Williams and Michael Redd. Up front, we have Bogut and Yi. Desmond (Mason) is at the small forward position and that might be something you maybe address.
The Bucks have two talented young power forwards — Charlie Villanueva and Yi Jianlian — and two good point guards — a veteran in Mo Williams and a rookie in Ramon Sessions — who have been starters in this league. Will you try to move one of these players at each position, or do you believe they can co-exist and be productive players for the Bucks next season? Hammond: “In my mind, yes, they can co-exist on this team. But you know what? All of those guys you mentioned are assets, even Sessions. The way he finished the season … as we continue to work the phones (in trade talks) I guarantee you his name will come up. “So those guys are all assets. Anytime you have assets, you look at that as positives.”( Racine Journal-Times)
…………………………………..
We argue about TJ and Jose … so the same must apply to Villanueva versus Yi at PF. I speculate the Bucks might move Yi if they got a good offer at SF or even a backup PF. Yi would be perfect for the Toronto Raptors multiculti fans, and would be a winner at the box office.
May 12, 2008 at 7:00 pm
Better Bucks news and more nba rumors on http://www.insidehoops.com on their rumors page. Basically every Bucks player not named Andrew Bogut was a disappointment last season, and they don’t have forwrads worthy of being starters on a winning team
May 12, 2008 at 7:02 pm
FAQ,
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re: I think everybody knows what is meant by the accusation “soft Euro players” .. as opposed to “tough US players”. It’s white players versus black players … playmakers versus athletes … thinkers versus doers … grinding versus flash … control versus sweat … You know … the racial thing …!!!!!
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Amongst other transgressions on your part, the ‘nationalistic/racial/ethnic stereotypes’ your messages play into are painful and pitiful to read.
Xenophobic content like yours is nauseating … on this otherwise first-class blog.
May 12, 2008 at 7:21 pm
Based on their body types, athleticism and skill sets … Andrea Bargnani and Hedo Turkoglu are nothing like one another, as NBA players.
On the other hand, as NBA players, a comparison between Mehmet Okur (who is a different player altogether from Hedo Turkoglu) and Andrea Bargnani, is much more apt, based on their body types, athleticism and skill sets.
Fortunately for Mehmet, to this point in his NBA career, he has been a member of two high calibre organizations and had the opportunity to play for (and learn the NBA game from) 3 very good head coaches (Rick Carlisle, Larry Brown and Jerry Sloan).
May 12, 2008 at 7:39 pm
khandor Says:
Amongst other transgressions on your part, the ‘nationalistic/racial/ethnic stereotypes’ your messages play into are painful and pitiful to read.
Xenophobic content like yours is nauseating … on this otherwise first-class blog.
………………………………
If you are unable or unwilling to discuss valid differences between bball players I suggest you stfu because your brand of censorship is undemocratic and plainly idiotic.
May 12, 2008 at 8:10 pm
Chris Bosh’s bio from his website:
At Lincoln High School in Dallas, Chris was his varsity basketball team’s captain in his junior and senior years, leading the team to a 40-0 record and a state championship during his senior season. A First Team All-American by Parade Magazine and Second Team All-American by USA Today, Chris was a McDonald’s All-American, and was the Texas Gatorade and Basketball America Player of the Year, including Mr. Basketball.
………………………..
If the Mavs don’t consider trading Nowitzki for Bosh, they are nutzzzz ….!!!!!
May 13, 2008 at 9:31 am
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re: If you are unable or unwilling to discuss valid differences between bball players …
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THE problem isn’t ‘What to do with those who bring up valid differences between basketball players?’ … but ‘What to do with those who bring up INVALID (i.e. fraudulent) DIFFERENCES between basketball players?’, seemingly, without realizing how the words/terms they’re using are (in fact?) xenophobic.
May 13, 2008 at 10:12 am
Those who accuse others of being ‘xenophobic’ can themselves be ‘psychotic’ … a severe mental disorder in which thought and emotions are so impared that contact is lost with external reality ..e.g. nutbar fan ..!!!
May 13, 2008 at 10:14 am
FAQ,
“If you are unable or unwilling to discuss valid differences between bball players I suggest you stfu because your brand of censorship is undemocratic and plainly idiotic.”
WTF? Your own comments state what is wrong with your arguments. Where does Tony Parker fit into your bizarro world? Did you know that 33% of the Lakers roster (5 out of 15) players are from outside the US, the same with the Spurs. The Raps have 6 players (because we include Primoz). So how are they “more” european? And Vince Carter, is black , an American, and one of the softest players in the league.
You cant generalize, period.
I also don’t understand why you think Toronto multicultural fans will pay more to see multicutural players. One thing Toronto has proven, with the exception of the leafs, we like winners. The Jays were well supported when they were winning, and fan interest dropped off when they weren’t. The Raps have been enjoying a steady increase in interest with increased success via wins. I am pretty sure that Chris Bosh is still the overall fan favorite in Toronto, and I think his ethnicity doesnt matter. Colangelo believes in certain style of play and brings in players, within his budget, to support that system. My guess is he’d take the best players he can get, regardless of where they’re from.
You clearly have lots of time on your hands and I am sure you will come up with some repsonse to this post. Unfortuatley, I have to go back to “hating americans”, in the “ghetto”.
Oh wait, my sister is an American, and the last time I checked the average house in Toronto was about $350K, pretty nice ghetto.
If others disagree with your comments, then its not censorship, the only one on the board telling people not to write is you.
“If you are unable or unwilling to discuss valid differences between bball players I suggest you stfu because your brand of censorship is undemocratic and plainly idiotic.”
I’ve said before that I think you have pretty good basketball knowledge, too bad you wrap it up with all this other crap.
BTW, there is no way that the Raps are trading Nowitzki for Bosh.